توضیحات
Excerpt from the pdf (minus Web-links and some formatting of text):
* Links to the praise are below, along with excerpts.
** e.g., my tenure since 2016 as an/the-world’s-most accidental threat-analyst; you emailing the U.S.’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA)
*** !?
Details are (linked-to) below, mostly via: 1) a copy of my October 5, 2022 email to DTRA, 2) additions-to-the-copy that excerpt from reports published after 10/5. A 10/7 screenshot of the email:
[screenshot here]
— Re: DTRA —
From the June 2022 article on TheAtlantic.com titled ‘What if Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?’ (my emphases):
__In 2019, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) ran extensive war games on how the United States should respond if Russia invades Ukraine and then uses a nuclear weapon there. DTRA is the only Pentagon agency tasked exclusively with countering and deterring weapons of mass destruction. Although the results of those DTRA war games are classified, one of the participants told me, ‘There were no happy outcomes.’ The scenarios for nuclear use were uncannily similar to the ones being considered today. When it comes to nuclear warfare, the participant said, the central message of the 1983 film War Games still applies: ‘The only winning move is not to play.’
— Subject of said email to DTRA —
My Amazon-/Microsoft-/VC-praised work + * = stable nuclear-deterrence (!?)
— Body of the email —
* e.g., my tenure since 2016 as an accidental threat-analyst
Hello all,
Details: https://ike1952yang2020ruscica2024.substack.com/p/stable-nuclear-deterrence
Excerpt:
— Links to said praise* —
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2005-02-13/one-more-thing-on-43-things (cached by Google; the praise is from the CEO of a defunct then-startup funded by Amazon and co-founded by members of Amazon’s first ‘personalization and recommendations’ team)
blogmaverick.com/2005/01/31/grokster-and-the-financial-future-of-america/#comment-7049 (blogmaverick.com is Mark Cuban’s blog)
* praise for innovations (INs) that are: 1) products of my work from 1992 to 2005, 2) complemented by the disruptive INs that are products of my work since 2005 (all of my INs are previewed below)
— Excerpts from the praise —
From a 1998 email sent to me by the then-Manager of the Learning Sciences and Technology Group at Microsoft Research:
__Frank, you are a good man. Have you thought about joining this team? Your only alternative, of course, is venture capital. But their usual models require getting rid of the ‘originator’ within the first eighteen months.
From a 2004 email sent to me by said CEO (previously Amazon’s first Director of Personalization):
__Frank, I just spent about an hour surfing around your website with a bit of amazement. . . . I guess I’m mostly just fascinated that we’ve been working a very similar vein to the one you describe, without having a solid name for it (we call it ‘the age of the amateur’ or ‘networks of shared experiences’ instead of [AI-powered] CLLCS [i.e., customized lifelong-learning and career services], but believe me, we are talking about the same patterns and markets, if not in exactly the same way). Thanks for sharing what you haveit’s fascinating stuff.
— Re: the . . . in the title of this page —
Summary (details below)
From* a University of Pennsylvania criminologist’s 2013 book:
__The worlds ~78 million psychopaths (Ps) are IMPERILED (PsIMP) by ongoing advances in molecular-genetics research.
__By 2034, involuntary ‘indefinite detention’ of Ps’time bombs waiting to explode’could/should result from mandatory biomarker-testing of all people.
I read said book in December 2015, soon after I recognized that my planned startup (MPS) would contribute** to the imperiling of Ps. By mid-2016 I thought it was at least:
* likely that a growing number of Ps were aware that PsIMP, and were preparing to resist
* somewhat likely that Ps’ war chest was (very) large and growing larger (rapidly)
These seeming likelihoods led me to conclude during Fall 2016 that PsIMP portended: 1) a THREAT to MPS, 2) a THREAT/THREAT to the rest of my industry, 3) a threat/T/T to many other people (hereafter, 1-3 are abbreviated as T2M).
Since then my focus has been preventing/subduing T2M (e.g., by improving my understanding of T2M, by supplying (updated) T2M-analysis to U.S.-government agencies).
In late 2021 I recognized that my worst-case-analysis-re:-T2M (mWCA) must incorporate nuclear weapons. From mWCA (current version):
There are STRONG indicators that: 1) Ps are resisting (PR)*, 2) PR either includes** autocratic-leaders-with-nukes (e.g., Putin***, Xi Jinping) or it will soon, 3) absent my work being leveraged: 3.1) PR-with-nukes would (continue to) resist via a domino-theory that centers on challenging the U.S. et al. (US+) to a succession of game-of-chicken variants, 3.2) each variant would force US+ to choose between a default-loss (e.g., parts of Ukraine where ‘huge natural gas deposits’ were discovered in 2010) or a Cuban- Missile-Crisis-like risk****.
* For starters, see the sections below titled ‘Re: [in 2016] I thought it was (very) likely that Ps were preparing to resist’ and ‘Precedents for Ps-RESISTING-PsIMP that I was aware of in 2016’; more indicators of PR are provided/linked-to in other sections.
** e.g., because Ps are to repressive kleptocracies what Murder, Inc. was to organized crime in the U.S. during the 1930s; for more re: ‘PR either includes . . .’, see: 1) the following footnote (***), 2) the sections titled ‘Re: the likelihood that: 1) a large and growing number of Ps are aware that PsIMP, 2) they’re resisting, 3) their war chest is very large and growing larger rapidly’ and ‘Re: mWCA now incorporates nukes possessed by Russia and China’
*** From 2020 book Putin’s People: How the KGB Took Back Russia and Then Took on the West:
__'[Putin] was always asking, ‘What is that word beginning with s? Sovestconscience.’ They dont have receptors for this.’
From 2019 book The New Evil: Understanding the Emergence of Modern Violent Crime:
__As we move along the continuum to Category 9 [of 22 categories of violent crime], we traverse an important threshold. The remainder of the scale encompasses persons who commit ‘evil’ acts partly or wholly as the result of varying degrees of psychopathy . . .
TNE co-author Michael H. Stone, MD, is a professor of clinical psychiatry at the Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons. TNE co-author Gary Brucato, PhD, is: 1) a clinical psychologist and researcher in the areas of violence, psychosis, and other serious psychopathology, 2) the assistant director of the Center of Prevention and Evaluation at the New York State Psychiatric Institute/Columbia University Medical Center.
More details re: Putin are below (e.g., the following lowlights).
**** From a March 2022 post on the blog of the RAND Corporation:
__[R]ulers like Putin . . . conflate the continuation of their rule with their personal survival . . . Perpetuating their own rule at any cost or risk of nuclear war is . . . rational for them [my emphasis].
From a March 2022 article in The New York Times (NYT; my emphases):
__'[A] former U.S. intelligence official for Europe . . . recently wrote that ‘scores of war games carried out by the United States and its allies’ all projected that Mr. Putin would launch a single nuclear strike if he faced limited fighting with NATO or major setbacks in Ukraine that he blamed on the West.
__. . . A recent Princeton University simulation, projecting out each side’s war plans and other indicators, estimated that it [i.e., said single nuclear strike] would be likely to trigger a tit-for-tat exchange that, in escalating to strategic weapons like intercontinental missiles, could kill 34 million people within a few hours.’
__’Late in the Obama administration, two American war simulations imagined . . . [a] skirmish between NATO and Russia that Moscow met with a single nuclear strike. In the first, Pentagon leaders proposed a retaliatory nuclear strike . . . [A] civilian White House official . . . persuaded them to stand down and isolate Moscow diplomatically . . . [T]he second simulation ended with American nuclear strikes . . .’
From an October 10, 2022 op-ed by former U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta:
__Some intelligence analysts now believe that the probability of the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine has risen from 1-5 percent at the start of the war to 20-25 percent today.
More details below.
[End of ‘From mWCA’]
Sadly/bleeply, there are indicators that US+’s (WC)As-re:-autocratic-leaders-with-nukes don’t include the implications of PsIMP (ESP. implications re: achieving stable nuclear-deterrence (SND)). Re: s/b:
__From an article in the May/June 2022 issue of Foreign Affairs:
__As [former U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert] McNamara once observed, the United States’ ‘security depends on assuming a worst possible case, and having the ability to cope with it [my emphasis].’
Re: ‘ESP. implications . . .’:
__From a 2022 op-ed in NYT, co-authored by two former members of the U.S. National Security Council staff (my emphases):
__In the 20th century, constructive doomsaying helped prevent the Cold War from becoming a shooting war. It was ultimately worst-case thinking that stabilized nuclear deterrence and staved off Armageddon.
Key to SND ASAP: you emailing*** the U.S.’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency (details (linked-to) below include text you can copy-paste).
* The two sentences that I attribute to the book summarize excerpts from the book that are linked-to in the sentences and/or that appear below.
** i.e., would make an unplanned/inadvertent contribution
— End of excerpt from the pdf —
Never a dull moment… 😐
————————————————————–
ترجمه ماشینی :
گزیده ای از پی دی اف (منهای پیوندهای وب و مقداری قالب بندی متن): * پیوندهای مداحی به همراه گزیده هایی در زیر آمده است. ** به عنوان مثال، دوران تصدی من از سال 2016 به عنوان تصادفی ترین تحلیلگر تهدید در جهان. آیا به آژانس کاهش تهدیدات دفاعی ایالات متحده (DTRA) ایمیل میزنید *** !؟ جزئیات (پیوند به) در زیر آمده است، عمدتاً از طریق: 1) یک کپی از ایمیل 5 اکتبر 2022 من به DTRA، 2) اضافات به کپی که گزیده ای از گزارش های منتشر شده پس از 10/5 است. اسکرین شات 10/7 از ایمیل: [اسکرین شات اینجا] \ — Re: DTRA — \ از مقاله ژوئن 2022 در TheAtlantic.com با عنوان “اگر روسیه از سلاح های هسته ای در اوکراین استفاده کند چه می شود؟” (تاکیدات من): \ __در سال 2019، آژانس کاهش تهدیدات دفاعی (DTRA) بازی های جنگی گسترده ای را در مورد اینکه اگر روسیه به اوکراین حمله کند و سپس از سلاح هسته ای در آنجا استفاده کند، ایالات متحده چگونه باید واکنش نشان دهد، اجرا کرد. DTRA تنها آژانس پنتاگون است که به طور انحصاری وظیفه مقابله و بازدارندگی سلاح های کشتار جمعی را بر عهده دارد. اگرچه نتایج آن بازیهای جنگی DTRA طبقهبندی شده است، یکی از شرکتکنندگان به من گفت: “هیچ نتیجه خوشایندی وجود نداشت.” سناریوهای استفاده از هسته ای به طرز عجیبی شبیه سناریوهایی بود که امروز در نظر گرفته می شود. شرکتکننده گفت، وقتی صحبت از جنگ هستهای به میان میآید، پیام اصلی فیلم جنگی 1983 همچنان صادق است: “تنها حرکت برنده بازی نکردن است.” — موضوع ایمیل گفته شده به DTRA — \ کار مورد ستایش آمازون-/مایکروسافت-/VC من + * = بازدارندگی هسته ای پایدار (!؟) \ — متن ایمیل — \ * به عنوان مثال , تصدی من از سال 2016 به عنوان یک تحلیلگر تهدید تصادفی \ سلام به همه، \ جزئیات: https://ike1952yang2020ruscica2024.substack.com/p/stable-nuclear-deterrence \ گزیده: \ — پیوندهایی به ستایش* — bloomberg.com/news/articles/2005-02-13/one-more-thing-on-43-things (ذخیره شده توسط Google؛ تمجید از مدیر عامل یک استارتاپ منحل شده است که توسط آمازون و سرمایه گذاری شده بود. توسط اعضای اولین تیم «شخصیسازی و توصیهها» آمازون تأسیس شد) \ blogmaverick.com/2005/01/31/grokster-and-the-financial-future-of-america/#comment-7049 وبلاگ مارک کوبان) * تمجید از نوآوری ها (IN) که عبارتند از: 1) محصولات کار من از 1992 تا 2005، 2) تکمیل شده توسط IN های مخرب که محصولات کار من از سال 2005 هستند (همه IN های من در زیر پیش نمایش شده اند. ) — گزیده هایی از ستایش — از ایمیلی که در سال 1998 توسط مدیر وقت گروه علوم و فناوری یادگیری در Microsoft Research برای من ارسال شد: __Frank، تو مرد خوبی هستی. آیا به پیوستن به این تیم فکر کرده ای؟ البته تنها جایگزین شما سرمایه گذاری خطرپذیر است. اما مدلهای معمول آنها مستلزم خلاص شدن از شر «اصل» در هجده ماه اول است. \ از ایمیلی که در سال 2004 توسط مدیر عامل شرکت (که قبلاً اولین مدیر شخصی سازی آمازون بود) برای من ارسال شد: \ __فرانک، من فقط یک ساعت با کمی شگفتی در وب سایت شما گشت و گذار کردم. . . . من حدس میزنم که من بیشتر مجذوب این هستم که ما با روشی بسیار شبیه به آنچه که شما توصیف میکنید، کار کردهایم، بدون اینکه نام محکمی برای آن داشته باشیم (به جای آن آن را «عصر آماتور» یا «شبکههای تجربیات مشترک» مینامیم. از CLLCS [با AI-powered] [یعنی، خدمات یادگیری مادامالعمر و شغلی سفارشیشده]، اما باور کنید، ما در مورد همان الگوها و بازارها صحبت میکنیم،
tag : دانلود کتاب کار من – آمازون-/مایکروسافت-/و. , Download کار من – آمازون-/مایکروسافت-/و. , دانلود کار من – آمازون-/مایکروسافت-/و. , Download My Amazon-/Microsoft-/VC-praised* work + ª** = stable nuclear-deterrence (i.e., no war involving nukes)*** Book , کار من – آمازون-/مایکروسافت-/و. دانلود , buy کار من – آمازون-/مایکروسافت-/و. , خرید کتاب کار من – آمازون-/مایکروسافت-/و. , دانلود کتاب My Amazon-/Microsoft-/VC-praised* work + ª** = stable nuclear-deterrence (i.e., no war involving nukes)*** , کتاب My Amazon-/Microsoft-/VC-praised* work + ª** = stable nuclear-deterrence (i.e., no war involving nukes)*** , دانلود My Amazon-/Microsoft-/VC-praised* work + ª** = stable nuclear-deterrence (i.e., no war involving nukes)*** , خرید My Amazon-/Microsoft-/VC-praised* work + ª** = stable nuclear-deterrence (i.e., no war involving nukes)*** , خرید کتاب My Amazon-/Microsoft-/VC-praised* work + ª** = stable nuclear-deterrence (i.e., no war involving nukes)*** ,
نقد و بررسیها
هنوز بررسیای ثبت نشده است.